Series 20, Episode 7: Heist, Heist Baby
Your Task
You know the drill by now; generate the usual ranking distributions (marginal, joint, within-episode, end of series), and comparisons to prior week’s distributions and predictions.
Bonus points for actually publishing this commentary ahead of the broadcast of Episode 8.
Figure 1: Making a mouth watering entrance in the flesh.
Series Scores on the Doors
Episode 7 Recap and Insights
Episode 7 Performance Report Cards
Episode 7 Performance Grade is based on comparing the current episode performance, to the prior 6 episode(s) performance and where it lies in the distribution.
Figure 2: Episode 7 Performance Report Cards
Figure 3: Contestant Task Performance
Series 20 Task Points Distributions for each Contestant
Past covers tasks up to Episode 6, Current Ep covers tasks in Episode 7.
Figure 3: Contestant Task Performance
And following Episode 7, Table 2 and 3:
- Ania won the episode with 20 points.
- This was Ania’s second episode win of the series, and also her best episode to date.
- In 2nd place was Sanjeev who accumulated 18 points.
- This was a very good, above average episode for Sanjeev.
- This could have been Sanjeev’s first episode win but the live studio task favoured contestants of the more youthful and mobile nature.
- Maisie and Phil finished in tied 3rd place with 17 points.
- This was good, average episode for Maisie. She may have escaped her performance dip, but time will tell if this is a one off anomaly, or a full escape from the Dip. Plus I’m not quite willing to give up on my Dip jokes and references.
- For Phil, this was a very good, above average episode.
- Reece completed the Episode 7 scoreboard, finishing in 5th place with 13 points.
- This wasn’t a great episode for Reece; he finished below average.
- I’m not the biggest fan of the Taskmaster role playing tasks (see Taskmaster Hotel, Taskmaster Fast Food), but I was a big fan of the Taskmaster Museum Heist task.
- It was the perfect blend of being detective skills, and creative puzzle solving.
- In an amazing case of serendipity and life imitating art, Episode 7 was also broadcasted in the same week that the Louvre Robbery occurred occurred. This has not gone unnoticed by the Taskmaster community, with the inevitable humorous responses from the community and even the Taskmaster crew.
Figure 4: How do you trap a wild Little Alex Horne?
Updated Series Scores
Figure 5: The Series 20 race in action!
And the following Episode 7, Figure 5 shows that there is another series ranking change, albeit a smaller one!
- Ania continues to be the forerunner of the series; she is currently 1st with 111 points.
- Phil is on track to win silver for the series; he is in 2nd place with 106 points.
- Maisie follows closely behind in 3rd with 102 points.
- Sanjeev has now crept into 4th place with 99 points but…
- Reece is immediately behind Sanjeev with 98 points and is currently in 5th place.
- The Glass Ceiling has finally been broken! 3 out of the 5 cast members have broken through the 3 digit barrier (100), and Reece and Sanjeev will break it by the next episode.
Figure 6: Maisie not quite believing how she has fallen from her initial series high, and how Phil has managed to pull ahead to 2nd plcae.
Within-Episode Ranking Distributions
Figure 7: How will our contestants fare within an individual episode? Using up to Episode 6 (left), using up to Episode 7 (right).
From Figure 7:
- Uniform distributions continue to be en vogue for most of the cast of Series 20. Maisie, Phil and Sanjeev have distributions which are the most like a uniform distribution (an equal 20% probability for each ranking). The small deviations are as follows.
- Maisie’s distribution is slightly skewed towards the higher ranks.
- Phil’s within episode ranking distribution is peaked and centred around 2nd and 3rd place.
- Sanjeev’s distribution is peaked and centred on 2nd place.
- However there are some more obvious detractors from the this uniformity:
- Reece’s distribution shows a skewness to the lower end of ranks within an episode.
- Ania’s distribution clearly deviates from a uniform distribution. Her distribution is skewed towards the top ranks for an episode.
- The most probable within episode rankings have updated to:
- Ania: 1st with 38.59% probability, previously 1st with 34.99%.
- Maisie: 1st with 23.28% chance, previously 1st with 24.40%.
- Phil: 2nd with 23.06% probability, previously 2nd with 22.84%.
- Reece: 5th with 28.54% chance, previously 5th with 25.48%.
- Sanjeev: 2nd with 21.48% chance, previously 2nd with 20.77%.
Figure 8: I’m sure Mummy Horne appreciates this feature!
End-of-Series Ranking Distributions
Figure 9: Where will our contestants place by the end of the series? Using up to Episode 6 (left), using up to Episode 7 (right).
From Figure 9:
- Whilst there is uniformity in the within-series ranking distributions, the series ranking distributions show clear deviations from a uniform distribution.
- Ania’s distribution is highly skewed towards the left (the higher ranks); she is estimated to be crowned champion of the series with approximately 81%.
- Given that Ania is currently the forerunner of the series, and that she has been a consistent high performer, this makes intuitive sense.
- Maisie’s distribution is flatter than Ania’s; it is peaked and centred around placing 3rd in the series with approximately 33%. She could place 2nd and 4th with comparable probability of 25% or so.
- Phil’s distribution is peaked on placing 2nd with 45%, with 26% chance of also placing 3rd in the series.
- Reece’s distribution is highly skewed to the right (lower ranks); he is estimated to place 5th in the series with approximately 56%.
- As Reece is currently in last place for the series, and he is the most volatile, unpredictable contestant who has had a streak of recent bad episodes, this distribution does make sense.
- Sanjeev has a relatively flat, wide distribution akin to Maisie’s. His distribution is however, peaked and centred on placing 4th with about 37%, and just under 25% chance of placing 3rd or 5th.
- Ania’s distribution is highly skewed towards the left (the higher ranks); she is estimated to be crowned champion of the series with approximately 81%.
- The peak locations and the relative flatness for Maisie, Phil and Sanjeev distributions, do seem logical based on their current series ranking (hence the peak locations), and their fluctuating performance in the last few episode (the flatness and the uncertainty).
- The maximum a posterior series ranking (that is the most likely) predictions are:
- Ania: 1st with 80.61%; previously 1st with 62.92%.
- Maisie: 3rd with 33.44%; previously 3rd with 27.27%.
- Phil: 2nd with 45.40%; previously 2nd with 35.22%.
- Reece: 5th with 56.37%; previously 5th with 32.96%.
- Sanjeev: 4th with 36.66%; previously 5th with 40.04%.
Figure 10: Maisie does not like the results and odds that I am presenting…
Joint Cast Ranking Distributions
Figure 11: How will the Series 20 cast fare as a complete unit? Using up to Episode 6 (left), using up to Episode 7 (right). Joint Distribution of Series Rankings for the Entire Cast of Series 20
And from Figure 11, the full cast series ranking distribution has regained some of its peakiness.
- The most probable cast series ranking occurring with 12.35% probability is:
- 1st: Ania
- 2nd: Phil
- 3rd: Maisie
- 4th: Sanjeev
- 5th: Reece
- The prior prediction we made (in which Reece was 4th and Sanjeev was 5th), has an estimated probability of 6.44% occurring.
- This prior prediction is the 4th most likely ranking outcome.
- Inspecting the top 5 most likely cast rankings they predominantly vary according to who places 2nd to 5th.
- Phil’s ranking varies between placing 2nd and 3rd.
- Maisie’s ranking varies between placing 2nd and 3rd, with one instance on placing 4th.
- Whether Reece will place 4th or 5th.
- Sanjeev will place 4th or 5th, with one instance of placing 3rd.
- In all the configurations, Ania comes 1st.
Figure 12: Ania getting ready to retain her favourable championship odds; she means serious business.
What Have We Learnt Today?
We’ve learnt that:
- The most probable series ranking is
[Ania: 1st, Maisie: 3rd, Phil: 2nd, Reece: 5th, Sanjeev: 4th], with 12.35% chance.- Other likely series rankings feature variants of the order of who will place in 2nd to 5th. Ania is expected to come 1st in all these combinations.
- The universe works in mysterious ways! Who would have planned the Taskmaster Museum Heist task being broadcasted in the same week of the Louvre Robbery occurring.
- Despite my best intentions to publish this post (about Episode 7) before the broadcast of Episode 8, it didn’t quite happen.
- Here’s to hoping that the Episode 8 post comes out before the Episode 9 broadcast.
Figure 13: Locking me up until the next post…
